SovereignWatch · Proof of state for the U.S. Treasury market

Is the world still financing America?

The figures that show who is buying U.S. government debt, captured from the Federal Reserve and the Treasury as they are published, signed, and anchored on the BSV blockchain. Every number below can be checked in your browser, down to re-reading it from the government’s own file stored on chain.

This answers part of the question: the official-sector window, and the price the market charges. Auction demand, the Treasury’s own holdings data and domestic buyers are the sources being added next.

Foreign demand

Foreign official institutions hold Treasuries in custody at the Federal Reserve. That is one window on official-sector demand, not a census of foreign ownership: the total moves with custody arrangements as well as with buying and selling. Dollars borrowed against those holdings through the FIMA repo facility are where strain abroad shows first.

  • Foreign official custody: marketable Treasuries

    RESH4FG_N.WW · Fed H.4.1 · Wednesday level

    $2,590.1bn

    Week to Wed 9 Sep 2026

    1 wkbn
    −11.1
    13 wkbn
    −43.3
    52 wkbn
    −212.2
  • FIMA repo (foreign official)

    RESPPALGTRF_N.WW · Fed H.4.1 · Wednesday level

    $1mn

    Week to Wed 9 Sep 2026

    1 wkmn
    +1
    13 wkmn
    ±0
    52 wkmn
    +1
  • Foreign official reverse repo

    RESPPLLRF_N.WW · Fed H.4.1 · Wednesday level

    $349.2bn

    Week to Wed 9 Sep 2026

    1 wkbn
    −8.0
    13 wkbn
    +32.3
    52 wkbn
    −4.3

The long end

The Fed sets the overnight rate. Investors set the 10- and 30-year yields, and with them what the government pays to borrow for a generation. Real yields take out the inflation investors expect.

The Treasury par yield curve

Yield by maturity, 1 month to 30 years, at three dates

  • 15 Sep 2026
  • 14 Aug 2026
  • 2 Jan 2026
2s10s spread
+33 bp
3-month to 10-year
+89 bp
10s30s spread
+36 bp
10-year breakeven inflation
2.38%

Computed on this page from the anchored yields for 15 Sep 2026. Verify the inputs; the arithmetic isn’t signed.

Show the curve as a table
Maturity15 Sep 202614 Aug 20262 Jan 2026
1-month3.93%3.79%3.72%
1.5-month4.00%3.80%3.71%
2-month4.06%3.81%3.66%
3-month4.11%3.86%3.65%
4-month4.19%3.88%3.62%
6-month4.17%3.95%3.58%
1-year4.39%3.98%3.47%
2-year4.67%4.17%3.47%
3-year4.76%4.24%3.55%
5-year4.83%4.36%3.74%
7-year4.91%4.51%3.95%
10-year5.00%4.68%4.19%
20-year5.40%5.25%4.81%
30-year5.36%5.25%4.86%
  • 3-month bill

    UST/PAR/3M · Treasury par yield curve · daily close

    4.11%

    15 Sep 2026

    1 daybp
    ±0
    1 mobp
    +25
    YTDbp
    +46
  • 2-year note

    UST/PAR/2Y · Treasury par yield curve · daily close

    4.67%

    15 Sep 2026

    1 daybp
    +2
    1 mobp
    +50
    YTDbp
    +120
  • 10-year note

    UST/PAR/10Y · Treasury par yield curve · daily close

    5.00%

    15 Sep 2026

    1 daybp
    +3
    1 mobp
    +32
    YTDbp
    +81
  • 30-year bond

    UST/PAR/30Y · Treasury par yield curve · daily close

    5.36%

    15 Sep 2026

    1 daybp
    +2
    1 mobp
    +11
    YTDbp
    +50
  • 10-year real yield (TIPS)

    UST/REAL/10Y · Treasury real yield curve · daily close

    Positive: no negative real rate

    2.62%

    15 Sep 2026

    1 daybp
    +2
    1 mobp
    +21
    YTDbp
    +68

Plumbing

What the Fed owns outright, the size of its balance sheet, the cash Treasury keeps at the Fed, and the reserves banks hold. The quantities every other number on this page moves through.

  • Fed Treasury holdings (outright)

    RESPPALGUO_N.WW · Fed H.4.1 · Wednesday level

    $4,552.3bn

    Week to Wed 9 Sep 2026

    1 wkbn
    −0.01
    13 wkbn
    +72.4
    52 wkbn
    +351.4
  • Fed total assets

    RESPPMA_N.WW · Fed H.4.1 · Wednesday level

    $6,740.6bn

    Week to Wed 9 Sep 2026

    1 wkbn
    +3.4
    13 wkbn
    +15.2
    52 wkbn
    +134.7
  • Treasury General Account

    RESPPLLDT_N.WW · Fed H.4.1 · Wednesday level

    $843.7bn

    Week to Wed 9 Sep 2026

    1 wkbn
    −100.7
    13 wkbn
    +42.6
    52 wkbn
    +176.1
  • Reserve balances

    RESH4R_N.WW · Fed H.4.1 · Wednesday level

    $3,036.5bn

    Week to Wed 9 Sep 2026

    1 wkbn
    +107.2
    13 wkbn
    −74.9
    52 wkbn
    −114.4

How a figure is verified

Press Verify on any row. Your browser checks the whole chain itself: nothing on this page asks you to trust this page.

  1. The government publishes a file.

    The Fed posts H.4.1 on Thursday afternoons; Treasury posts yields every business day.

  2. The file is captured exactly as served.

    Saved byte for byte and named by its SHA-256. Nothing is retyped or tidied.

  3. Each value becomes a record.

    A versioned parser reads the file. Each record names the file it came from.

  4. Every record is signed.

    A BRC-220 certificate: an ECDSA signature by the publisher key over the record’s hash.

  5. One transaction anchors thousands.

    The certificates go under a single Merkle root in a BSV transaction, and the government file itself is written to the chain.

  6. Your browser checks all of it.

    Signature, Merkle path, the transaction’s place in its block, the block’s proof of work, then it re-reads the number from the government file.

What a proof can’t tell you

  • That the Fed or Treasury really served that file. A proof shows this publisher said so, and when. Anchoring stops later edits, not a false capture; independent capturers are the fix, and they’re planned.
  • The exact moment of capture. The block time is an upper bound; the retrieval time is the publisher’s own claim.
  • What was known back then, for early history. Values before 11 Sep 2026 were captured on that date, not when first published.

node src/cli.ts prove RESH4FG_N.WW --out custody.json node src/cli.ts verify custody.json --publisher 02f0601cf34f38b488cdcbe1adb5397b1d5024566a4315fe13fa6d670a6ad973bb

Proof of record

Checks, run in this browser

    Chain of custody

      Proof bundle (JSON)
      
            
          

      Check it without this page